LII International Scientific Conference on Control Processes and Stability (CPS'21)
Saint-Petersburg, Russia, 5 – 9 April 2021

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Plenary session
Spread of epidemics: in search of new models for forecasting practice
The report examines the problem of constructing models for predicting the spread of new infectious diseases. The analysis and mathematical modeling of outbreaks of the diseases of this type play an important role in planning a healthcare response. Basic mathematical models allow us to identify the main trends in predicting the spread of a disease. Using more complex models, we can understand how to react more effectively considering limited healthcare system resources and how to determine the impact of restrictive measures on the spread of the epidemic. The report presents various models for predicting the spread of epidemics of new viral infections, including both classical models based on differential equations and modern models based on machine learning methods, agent-based approach, and data mining techniques. The classification of models and methods is given. The influence of input data on the quality of forecasts is estimated. Methods for specifying the unknown parameters of the infection spread mathematical models are considered. The report also discusses some of the challenging issues in this area of research.
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03.03.2021 - 10:33:24
 
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